Who Gets to Stay in School? Long-run Impact of Income Shocks on Schooling in Rural Tanzania

This paper shows that income shocks to rural households have permanent effects on the educational attainment of 7-15 year old children within the household. Using a 13 year panel survey of households in rural Tanzania, I find that idiosyncratic crop shocks such as pests, theft and fire cause changes in the distribution of schooling among children within the household that persist 10-13 years after the shock. They affect older (12-15) girls and younger (7-11) boys most adversely. The effects are remarkably persistent in households affected by shocks of varying magnitudes. An investigation of plausible channels for these effects suggests that an increase in the chore burden of older girls within the household in response to a crop shock is likely to be part of the explanation for the adverse effect of shocks on this cohort.